TRE is bouncing off the bottom channel line of a channel that started back in October 2009.

At the same time TRE is nursing the second half of a reverse head and shoulder formation that happens to also land on the bottom of the channel line. You can see this in daily and weekly charts. The H&S started in Oct. 2010.

What this means for next week is that TRE will probably continue to go down to say the 6.30 range but should start its way back up through 6.50 as soon as the second half of the week. It won't be until April that it blows through 7.50 because that is how long it took the left shoulder to go back up. Thart is also probably why there is no activity in the March options. The action will occur in April.

Projecting anything beyond 7.50 is premature until I see TRE follow through on this head and shoulder formation and confirm the validity of the bottom channel line. If this does not happen then something is wrong because these basic channel lines will have been violated and they should not be at this point.

When we cross 7.50 confirming the channel patterns and the head and shoulder formation then we can look out a few more months to see where things are headed. What I am looking for is confirmation of channel patterns that seem to point in a certain direction.

If you listened carefully to the Agm there was a point where Sinclair talked about April. That fits with the chart timeline.

I can tell you this.

There is another chart pattern that has been long standing since 2002 that points to a potential monster move for TRE that would dwarf the $14 projection. That move would occur all this year. The problem is that in order for that to happen, TRE must follow through on its head and shoulder pattern and on bouncing off the bottom of its channel. If it confirms these two things then we can assume that it is behaving predictably which it has so far. If it does not, then something is very wrong.

So right now we are looking for TRE to break 7.50 by end of April. Once the breakout occurs, then we can talk about May- June and the rest of the year. It is all about confirming the short term patterns right now. There is potentially a huge prize here but this game has become very simple. TRE must confirm these patterns and we can then see pretty clearly the plan.