"Right now TRE is in a downtrend and will copntinue to be so until it goes above 9."

Downtrend is the wrong word. The proper term is consolidation. TNX is only going through the normal backing and filling after it's huge run from 2.5 to 7.5. That is basic TA. It becomes a downtrend when it breaks the 50% fibonacci retracement level $5 with volume.

But, why even mention this with a possible black swan event just occurring in Japan.

Oh and by the way once the consolidation, retracement ends the next move up should equal the 5 point move up which brings it to at least 10.

Never bet against great management and JS is one of the best and brightest.

PS- JS is right about the cup and handle formation also. Doesn't get better than that.