Re: Darkest before the dawn...Cue Imperial March
in response to
by
posted on
Oct 16, 2014 08:30PM
Hydrothermal Graphite Deposit Ammenable for Commercial Graphene Applications
Hello all
With markets in turmoil and our time without Zen news dragging I wanted to add to the discussion that has taken place since the AGM. If any of this is a repost my apologies as I must have missed it while reading and catching up.
I did attend the AGM and met GMA very quickly. I hope to meet more Agora posters in the future.
Fuel Cells + Size
I asked about the size of particles at the AGM and Aubrey wouldnt divulge what the breakdown of Zen's size is however he did state that sub 10 microns is what the high end manufacturers want. Thus given our Japanese translation from the embassy event this is yet another huge positive! Also of note two main actors, Mr. Stowe bring one of them, were absent from the AGM but Aubrey said that they were in Europe. --Meeting with which companies I wonder?... especially Fuel Cell makers--
Value
In the current presentation we have 5-30/Kg. $8500/Ton equates to roughly $9.40/kg. This is important as this average number is used in many base calculations. Additionally.. and I believe Quincey and others mentioned that aspects of the high end market.. do sell at the $50-60Kg range.
Now with EXTREMELY conservative values of:
$65/raw ton to mine mill and sort the graphite
200M Cap Ex
25M working capital
Discount rate of 10%
$8500/T selling price
Recovery rate of 90% one can calculate an NPV of 2.22B with an IRR of 85%
On a per share basis that is $36.66 fully diluted with 60.6M shares.
On the second full year of production -hypothetical but impressive- one can calculate Net Cash flow of 283M. So lets just take off 35% simply for taxes, royalties, misc. etc and we arrive at 184M on a per share basis that could be $3.03. So for those asking about a dividend play.. at 5x you have $15/share, 10x $30/share and at 20x $60/share.
While we wait in angst over LOIs and MOUs please step back a moment and think through the ramificiations of what I have just posted. Keep in mind that I have used very conservative numbers. A buyout or productions scenario this is just a plain solid business case. Full Stop.
In closing I have to echo what others have said graphite is opaque. It is not well known it is not clear. But dont take my word for it. Do you research .. read.. think.. crunch numbers.. ultimately you will be a better investor because of it. And most importantly refute with facts what you have read above I would be happy to read it!
In closing.. Good news!
To end on a happy thought.. most people freak out when markets correct or tank. Savy investors get their cash out and gleefully pick up great things that fear makes others sell for penies on a dollar. Be gleeful everyone and get some real bargains!
Cheers and Zen wayyyy past ten!
Mongo