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Message: Re: My Theory: For what(ever) it's worth...LL DRVEN
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Aug 16, 2009 12:21PM
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Aug 16, 2009 12:28PM

From the numbers you quote the last 5 are in the dreamland. My subjective probability of 50% is too high. Remember it is subjective probability and the buyer will asigned a much smaller number. It is number that serves his interest. From this he will have to take out his expenses too which presently amount to another 50%. Therefore, his tender offer will be 25% of what the board estimates so far. If the buyer assumes a probability of success of 40% , then 50% of that will be 20%. Now the present value of these amount discounted at a ten percent rate will make it far less. The higher the rate of interest the smaller the present value. With tight loan markets, as we see them today, the discounting they will want will be very heavy. In fact, no banker will touch such a deal. Without any more input noone can even guessestimate what is left for Edig. I don't want to get crucified but, if you insist, a 10% of what is given here should be about right. Therefore, anywhere between $.85 and $1.20 will be a fair, given the present knowledge, estimate for net receipts per share. Now please don't read into that any pessimism or attempt to bad mouth the management.

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Aug 17, 2009 03:28PM
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Aug 17, 2009 03:54PM
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Aug 17, 2009 04:04PM

Aug 18, 2009 08:29AM
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