Thanks for the response from yesterday afternoon ebear ... appreciate your insight and opinions.

With respect to Correa's approval rating, it looks like it has fluctuated between the low 70s and mid 50s since his election. Overall, it seems like he is maintaining a reasonable approval rating (much better than some other leaders closer to home). Was the Columbian situation orchestrated? ... a possibility I guess. This certainly would not be the first time that manipulation has occurred to create a situation to influence public opinion in Ecuador or for that matter elsewhere in the world.

As per your suggestion, I found some good reading (at least for someone like me that is less familiar with the history of mining in Ecuador than others on this board might be) on Ascendent Copper and Corriente Resources and the history on what has happened with their projects over the past few years. Both seem to have had a bit more sordid/messy history than Aurelian which certainly sheds some light on the dynamics of the current situation.

“By suspending mining operations, the decree allows Correa to postpone conflicts with indigenous and environmental groups and avoid clashes within his own party until after elections.” my comment>>I’ve been trying to understand the rationale for the suspension of activities. This statement seems to me to be offering a reasonable explanation for Correa’s support for the suspension. The benefit to Correa outweighs the potential cost relative to achievement of his objectives. your comment>> "It's a risky gambit. Intelligent people see this as a sell-out, not a compromise. It indicates he is being led by factions within his own party, rather than leading them. Not a good image to present in a country where strong leadership is expected from presidents."

Selling out = "gaining success at the cost of credibility" or "compromising of one's integrity, morality and principles in exchange for money, 'success' or other personal gain". I think the first definition applies … his actions contradicted his stated position and consequently affected his credibility. With the regard to the second definition ... ? Is Correa in this for personal gain or does he have a vision for the betterment of his country and the people of Ecuador that he is attempting to achieve. Both are most likely true with a bias towards the latter being preferable obviously. Has he sold out on his vision or has he miscalculated as per your comments …

“Correa has miscalculated badly here, IMO. Some (including myself) thought he set a trap for Acosta, but I'm now starting to think Acosta set a trap for him. I don't see how anyone will risk serious money in Ecuador now after everything that's happened in the past year. That applies to all forms of foreign investment, not just mining. Foreign investment was off some 38% in 2007, compared to 2006. I see no reason for that trend to change. Captive investments such as Aurelian will most likely be developed, but as usual the terms are unclear. Anything without a defined resource will be abandoned is my guess. We're starting to see this already, and I'm sure that was Acosta's intent. He's been consistently anti-mining from day one. The compromise (if you can call it that) lets existing development go ahead, but effectively puts the brakes to any future exploration.”

Although there are worse case scenarios than this, this seems to be a reasonable expectation of where this ends up some time between now and 6 months from now as a probable but less than desirable scenario … with the terms being sufficiently reasonable for development to proceed. I am not sure what terms sufficiently reasonable for development to proceed look like other than the terms must allow for a reasonable return on investment. I am assuming that the powers that be in Ecuador will want to bring this project to fruition and recognize that they do not have the capability to bring this project to fruition without ARU or a major acquiring ARU with terms that must be reasonable enough to support most likely the latter option and that the anti-mining factions will concede with respect to ARU/FDN moving forward. Where does this put us with respect to ARU share price? Is it reasonable to expect that we will get back to pre April 17th share price values between now and 6 months from now?