Re: BFS
in response to
by
posted on
Dec 11, 2012 12:12AM
CUU own 25% Schaft Creek: proven/probable min. reserves/940.8m tonnes = 0.27% copper, 0.19 g/t gold, 0.018% moly and 1.72 g/t silver containing: 5.6b lbs copper, 5.8m ounces gold, 363.5m lbs moly and 51.7m ounces silver; (Recoverable CuEq 0.46%)
Well, I try to look at worst case scenarios a bit, largely becuase I've overextended myself and some life circumstances are requiring me to come up with some substantial cash soon ... hanging on as long as I can as I believe in the play. And have laid awake a few nights thinking, what have I gotten myself into.
I won't blink if we see a capex of $5 billion, or even slightly more (like KSM's 2012 PFS of $5.3). This can be offset however, no, more than offest, by increased tonnes per day. With a good starter pit and 200,000 TPD like Elmer has mentioned, its quite possible that we could produce close to $2 billion worth of concentrate per year for the first few years (at today's prices). "If" copper goes north of $4 and gold north of $2000/oz (both very likely a few years from now) Teck will have hit the jackpot.
Again, a capex of $5 billion is really high, and I sincerely hope they keep it lower. I've just wrestled it through a bit in case this happened, and conclude that even if we hit this, we can still come out more profitable than the PFS of 2008.
My two big questions now are: 1) how good will the numbers be? 2) what will Teck, or another, pay for us? These questions make me antsy. I want to see with my own eyes the great numbers of the BFS. And then what we all are really waiting for is to see what Teck pays - they, or another suitor, needs to hedge themselves in from undue risk. But we also have a very attractive deposit ... with extra lands for exploration, waste, etc. I won't repeat all the possibilities again, but look forward to the moment of reckoning. May all the bulls be right!
For quick comparison, look at Seabridge - different deposit but similar metals, and similar ballpark area. They've kept their 2012 operating costs to $13.64/t (our 2008 PFS was 12.49/t, and should increase due to a bigger mine size - NTL will keep it from ballooning too big). Pretty big NPV for Seabridge too, although they are working on NPV5. I hope we can see some pretty Schaft Creek numbers at spot prices ... should be fantastic. http://www.seabridgegold.net/ksm_engineer.php