Re: Stay away from Teck
in response to
by
posted on
Nov 30, 2022 12:53PM
CUU own 25% Schaft Creek: proven/probable min. reserves/940.8m tonnes = 0.27% copper, 0.19 g/t gold, 0.018% moly and 1.72 g/t silver containing: 5.6b lbs copper, 5.8m ounces gold, 363.5m lbs moly and 51.7m ounces silver; (Recoverable CuEq 0.46%)
At some point, a business decision or strategy has to be re-visited and re-evaluated for its relevance and efficacy.
- Billionaire Ernesto has not buckled in ten years of a 'non-venturing' Joint Venture so Teck's Jr.-starvation strategy can't be seen as a success to Teck BOD
- Teck has fresh new management in place now who have way more experience and perspective and will want to follow their own path forward
- New Teck CEO recently mentioned they are reviewing the poling of projects in the pipeline
- Some (although far from all) value at SC has been finally exposed recently with the PEA
- Teck showed estimate of SC with C1 at US $0.60 - $0.70/lb (better than anything else they have)
- Fresh SC PEA recommendations include infratructure sharing with Galore
- Galore PFS overdue with Newmont waiting longer than promised
- Copper price over the next few years has nowhere to go but up and Teck (and Newmont) know it
Despite CF management's pathetic track record at monetizing value for shareholders, I'm trying to stay positive that something has got to give, as in either Newmont or Teck makes a move on us, and I think it could happen during (or just prior) the start of the next economic cycle upturn. I assume copper will get north of $6 once a recession (or fears thereof) ends.
And I still think that at '$6 copper' Teck and Newmont will lose their minds that they didn't move sooner and will have no choice but to take us out, or at least our interest in SC. Copper hit $5 briefly in 2022. With China coming back online at some point, and with super tight inventories, '$6 copper' as the new reality is not a stretch, imo. |
Teck/Newmont could buy us at over half price by taking us out now when copper prices used in NPVs are still in the $3's vs. $5 or $6 +. I don't know if this is keeping Teck/Newmont awake at night, but it can't be lost on them.