Re: Back of the envelope calculation...
in response to
by
posted on
Jun 26, 2009 01:33PM
Crystallex International Corporation is a Canadian-based gold company with a successful record of developing and operating gold mines in Venezuela and elsewhere in South America
Hi everyone,
I was at the AGM and I came away with 3 main impressions:
1.
Robert Fung mentioned doing business in VN had a "different context" that we only have a sense of. Political considerations are not often a major factor in business dealing in N.A. as government policy is dealt with at a regulatory level. On March 2009, the VN government confirmed that KRY was in compliance with the MOC and regulatory conditions. I'm sure RF was referring to the political context when he used the term "different context"
My impression is the VN governemt will not grant the permit because it doesn't fit the current political agenda.
2.
RF said that all parties agree that the MOC has value and the VN government would like to settle this quickly and avoid arbitration if possible.
My impression is the VN government has conceded that KRY is not going to disappear and they have a good case if it goes to arbitration. In additon, the VN government is under pressure (from Chavez likely) to get the mine producing with an acceptable (politically) partner.
3.
RF mentioned a compensation figure "in excess of 2 Billion dollars"
My impression was despite the "back of the envelope calculation" disclaimer, this is very significant. He didn't pull this figure out of his head at the AGM. Settlement is being discussed as an option at the very least. RF didn't have to name a figure at all. The fact that he did tells me that he is confident that he can get that amount or more with a high degree of confidence otherwise he wouldn't commit to that figure at the AGM. In addition, we all agree that RF is sharp, he has set the lower limit and the expectations of the shareholders. No shareholder would be willing to accept less now which he can take this back to the table when negotiating with the VN government.
My apologies to presone and vlada for not meeting you at the AGM. I was late arriving and I had to leave before the finish as I was ducking out from work...Next time.