Time to double down
posted on
Apr 12, 2011 09:19AM
I've been waiting for the point where the 'worst case' was off the table for CMM and a YES or NO vote would probably not matter to making money from these levels. The 2010 report that came out the other day confirmed to me just how orchestrated Finskiy's plan has been: transferring the warrants pre-deal; creating the cash call with the crusher; offering the WTG bridge loan; proposing a 0.4x exchange offer; and then NOW exercising the warrants. I only assume that these new shares are in "safe" hands (ie. a Finskiy buddy posing as a minority). So, I think he may have a good chance of having his YES vote. But, I now also think that a NO vote does not bring the dreaded cash call, now with the $7.6mn warrant proceeds. So I think, either way, we win. (WTG needs this deal and so I assume that even a dissent of over 5% will not stop the deal).
Much has been said about WTG and what it is or isn't worth. There is a lot of emotion there. I am just asking myself, "would I buy more CMM today?". Everything is based on risk-reward. Even if WTG's share price post-deal dives, which I don't think it will, I see the IPO price of $1 being the floor. That's where Finskiy's strong hands will be. That is a CMM share price of $0.40, even if the offer isn't improved. But, I think the market can value a combined WTG/CMM company at a minimum at $2 per share ($600mn market cap), or $0.80 per CMM share.
Conclusion: Downside $0.40 with worst case off the table. Upside $0.80+. I am hoping for more just like everyone, but am letting the numbers speak for themselves.
I have seen a lot of time and energy spent debating how to stop the deal. But true CMM believers should be buying shares. And, my understanding is that meeting date has not been set (ie. is being pushed back) so shares you buy today can still be voted.
And, the paragraph from the MD&A I was talking about....
"In February 2011, the Company was advised that its significant shareholder had sold substantially all of its remaining warrants which it acquired in December 2009. As a result, the Company‟s right to require the significant shareholder to exercise these warrants became unavailable. However, in March and April 2011, 25,500,000 of these warrants with a weighted average exercise price of $0.30 were exercised for gross proceeds of $7,650,000."