Re: WTG/Century Arb spread....
in response to
by
posted on
Jun 06, 2011 09:33PM
I hear what you are saying IMN, and agree with the reasons that there is a huge spread. However I need you to explain why we aren't seeing what would be normal in an acquisition setting, that is: After a merger deal is announced, the price of the target company (CMM) usually moves substantially higher to reflect the premium in value being paid by the acquiring company (WTG). Why is it that both companies are heading downward? Since the proposed business combination on March 14th, 2011:
WTG from $3.25 on March 14th - $1.81 on June 6th. A 45% haircut.
CMM from $0.67 on March 14th - $0.315 on June 5th. A 53% haircut.
If the deal passes, where do you see WTG at 1 for 0.4 ratio? Trend certainly appears down. I don't think that CMM has the cashflow issues that are purported. Therefore, if the deal folds I think you will see CMM rocket back up in shareprice (why wouldn't you want that?).
However, if the deal goes through there is far more concern about shareholder value. Especially given the current haircut, combined with the unknown of what's to come before voting (greater probability of negative vs positive news).
WTG currently has 114,880,210 shares outstanding.
CMM currently has 470,961,847 shares outstanding.
The proposed “business combination“ offer is for 0.4 WTG share per 1.0 CMM share, or 1 WTG share for 2.5 CMM shares.
Therefore:
114,800,210 WTG x 2.5 = 287,200,525 CMM equivalent shares. What are we getting for this 160% dilution? Is it about the perceived money that WTG has – which btw is about a 24 million revolving credit. I'm pretty sure this wouldn't be a problem to finance on our own. Let's see...Diluting by 287,200,525 CMM equivalent shares for 24 million debt? This doesn't make sense. Prove to me why it does.
We know WTG is locked up - 96% or so under direct or indirect Finskiy control.
doc