Re: What are we worth ?
in response to
by
posted on
Nov 26, 2011 11:49AM
New Discovery Resulting in a 20KM Mineralized Gold Belt
Hey Danny,
I think the discrepancy in the numbers may be attributed to the following. Some posters are considering what we can prove we are worth to the market while you may be using numbers related to our intrinsic value once the true grades are established. In the short term, I expect there will be no attempt at accurate grade determination by either deep bulk sampling or small-scale mining operations and I prefer to use the information from the company's March 22, 2011 news release for guidance. See excerpt below:
"When compiled with the previous bulk sampling completed in 2009/10 by Golden Hope Mines Limited as well as by previous companies (Blackhawk Mining Ltd. and Privex Mines Ltd.) at the T1 Zone, an area of approximately 4120 square metres is outlined at surface by 80 samples (>0.5 g/t Au) that yield an average of 2.84 g/t Au. "
The block model numbers will likely be a bit different from these - my expectation is actually a bit lower grade to include more tonnage but I think it gives us a good starting point for discussion.
My valuation models are a bit more conservative than some others. As for the mining costs that have been proposed I think the Agnico-Eagle Goldex Deposit was being mined at a cost somewhere between $25-30 per tonne and this was primarily an underground operation. The capital cost for mill and mine was estimated at around $140 million by Jim Tilsley with total capital costs around $170 million. In terms of NPV calculations (what the company might be worth to someone buying it today) it may be important to include estimate mill throughput (Jim T. used 2500 tonnes per day in his estimates) and factor gold prices and annual revenues (after tax at 50% rate) into the equation over the expected lifetime of the mine (eg. 16 years for 15 million tonnes of resource). Including the cost of paying for infrastructure the net after tax cumulative mining revenues over 15 years this "value" can be put into a net present value calculator which incorporates a discount rate for the present "risk" of buying a company with a good economically mineable resource. I believe the discount rates are typically 10-20% for junior exploration companies but I would welcome suggestions from others- especially in the current global market funk. By my calculations- these metrics would place the current value of the company somewhere near $1. A critical component of these calculations is tonnage because it increases the lifetime of the mine and therefore the present value. I believe there is much more than 15 MT at Bellechasse and the true grades will be higher than 2.8 g/t but this is only my opinion. Lastly, these numbers do not include the possibility of low-cost surface mining as has been recently mentioned by the company which could significantly reduce costs per tonne and initial infrastructure expenses.
Best,
Scott