I found this article which is very interesting about the supply.It does not seem that we are going to miss any till 2030.

n the IEO2007 reference case, world consumption of petroleum and other liquid fuels4 grows from 83 million barrels oil equivalent per day in 2004 to 97 million in 2015 and 118 million in 2030. The demand for liquids increases strongly in the projections, despite world oil prices that remain above $49 per barrel5 throughout the period. Much of the overall increase in liquids consumption is projected for the nations of non-OECD Asia, where strong economic growth is expected.

World Liquids Consumption

World liquids consumption in the IEO2007 reference case increases to 118 million barrels per day (239 quadrillion Btu) in 2030, as the world continues to experience strong economic growth. Two-thirds of the increment in world liquids consumption in the reference case is projected for use in the transportation sector, where there are few competitive alternatives to petroleum (Figure 33). The industrial sector accounts for a 27-percent share of the projected increase, mostly for use in chemical and petrochemical processes.

The largest increases in consumption between 2004 and 2030 are projected for North America and non-OECD Asia, at 7 and 15 million barrels per day, respectively (Figure 34). Outside North America, liquids consumption in the OECD regions generally grows more slowly, reflecting expectations of slow growth or declines inpopulation and slow economic growth in most of the OECD nations over the next two decades.

Strong expansion of liquids use is projected for the non OECD countries, fueled by robust economic growth, burgeoning industrial activity, and rapidly expanding transportation use. The fastest growth in oil consumption is projected for the economies of non-OECD Asia, averaging 2.7 percent per year from 2004 to 2030. For the other non-OECD regions, annual consumption growth averages 1.0 percent in non-OECD Europe and Eurasia, 2.1 percent in the Middle East, 2.3 percent in Central and South America, and 2.2 percent in Africa.

Non-OECD Asia accounts for 43 percent of the overall increase in world liquids consumption, with projected increases of 6.5 million barrels per day from 2004 to 2015 and another 8.5 million barrels per day from 2015 to 2030. China, India, and the other nations of non-OECD Asia are expected to experience combined economic growth of 5.8 percent per year from 2004 to 2030, the highest rate among all the world regions. The robust expansion of GDP projected for non-OECD Asia contributes to a 2.7-percent average annual increase in the region’s liquids use.

World Liquids Production

In the IEO2007 reference case, world liquids production in 2030 exceeds the 2004 level by 35 million barrels per day (Figure 36). Increases in production are expected for both OPEC and non-OPEC producers; however, 65 percent of the total increase is expected to come from OPEC areas. In 2030, OPEC is expected to produce 57 million barrels per day and non-OPEC producers 61 million barrels per day in the reference case. Over the past two decades, the growth in non-OPEC liquids production has resulted in an OPEC market share substantially below its high of 52 percent in 1973. In 2004, OPEC produced 41 percent of the world’s liquids supply. High oil prices, new exploration and production technologies, aggressive cost-reduction programs by industry, and the emergence of unconventional resources contribute to the outlook for continued growth in non-OPEC liquids production.

Oil Reserves and Resources

Historically, estimates of world oil reserves have generally trended upward (Figure 38) [3]. As of January 1, 2007,proved world oil reserves, as reported by Oil & Gas Journal,7 were estimated at 1,317 billion barrels—24 billion barrels (about 2 percent) higher than the estimate for 2006 [4] (Table 3). In addition to growth in remaining oil reserves, production from conventional crude oil and condensate reserves, natural gas plant liquids, Canadian oil sands, and Venezuelan ultra-heavy oil during 2006 were estimated to be 30 billion barrels. Taken together, the reserve increases and production imply that 54 billion barrels of reserve discoveries and growth occurred during 2006, or an increase of about 4 percent.

Since 2000, the largest net increase in estimated proved oil reserves has been made in Canada, with the addition of 174 billion barrels of Canadian oil sands as a conventional reserve.8 Iranian oil reserves have increased by 46.6 billion barrels, or 52 percent, since 2000. Kazakhstan has had the third-largest increase, 24.6 billion barrels, since 2000. The 10 countries with the largest net increases in reserves between 2000 and 2007 are listed in Table 4. According to Oil & Gas Journal, 56 percent of the world’s total proved oil reserves are located in the Middle East (Figure 39). Among the top 20 reserve holders in 2007,11 are OPEC member countries that, together, account for 65 percent of the world’s total reserves (Table 3). The largest declines in oil reserves between 2000 and 2007 were reported in Mexico (16.0 billion barrels), China (8.0 billion barrels), Norway (2.9 billion barrels), Australia (1.3 billion barrels), and the United Kingdom (1.3 billion barrels).

The most common measure of the adequacy of proved reserves relative to annual production is the reserve-to production (r/p) ratio, which describes the number of years of remaining production from current proved reserves at current production rates. For the past 25 years, the U.S. r/p ratio has been between 9 and 12 years, and the top 40 countries in conventional crude oil production rarely have reported r/p ratios below 8 years. The major oil-producing countries of OPEC have maintained r/p ratios of 20 to 100 years (Table

http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/oil.html

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