Re: But even with a low P/E, at $1.00 in potential earnings - B-Lunist
posted on
Dec 01, 2007 06:46AM
Your math looks correct (with the rounding), but you left out a detail that may confuse. That $800M gets divided by two, yielding $400M, which is better than $1/share earnings with our OS near 400M.
And yes, the current settlement-in-waiting could be good for only $50M to PTSC, or some outrageous number, and you did leave that out of the equation. Another thing to consider is that if we could get licenses at a rate/frequency like that, our P/E and market cap would probably adjust accordingly - not to mention the recurring income stream just from the interest on all that money. I'll spare everyone my tired discussion of what our P/E multple should be, but I will remind that the average (just average) P/E in our market sector is 39 (what's 39 X $1?).
Wild card to the down side = Swartz.
Wild cards to the upside = strong promotion of the stock via an effective marketing campaign, a higher average licensing fee, a strong strategic acquisition during the timeframe, multiple such acquisitions, AMD using our I/I tech and sending us royalties, and, since I'm getting a little extreme, inclusion of a covert "deal" (ala TPL/Telesys with Sony) with a license to Sun Micro for a native Java chip (ShBoom, where the tech work is done, or I/I with Sun doing the tech work).
All talk of where the PPS might go is a bit futile. Either you're an optimist and believe the P/E will be at least better than one third of where it is today (~16), somewhere higher, or higher than the "average" 39 (market cap be damned), simto ARMHY (~46); or you believe that, with our earnings at $1/share and $400M+ in the bank and more than half the infringers yet to be hit, our P/E multiple will be less than a third of what it is today (~16) keeping the PPS down at $5. It will be what it will be....(duh!).
JMHOs,
SGE