Re: SGE1 / Re: IMO Schwartz stock sales:Greeneyes - LL
in response to
by
posted on
May 08, 2008 07:12AM
Talk about not answering questions - I requested advice because I figured you had the figures at your fingertips. I guess I was wrong, so now I'll do it for you.
Based on reality, "The company’s operating results include $11.7 million in equity earnings from Phoenix Digital Solutions" in Q3.
http://patriotscientific.com/index.p...
In Q3, the following were signed up through the end of Jan.:
Daewoo
WMS
Lite-On
Alpine
NEC
Toshiba
Matsushita
JVC
Verigy
Humax
Psion
(In Feb came: Tokyo Electron, DirecTV, Mattel, Advance Medical Optics, and Citizen).
You say: "Based on that and no Feb licenses, it leaves approx $22M for the Js". So, you're saying that the entire amount that came in to PDS (net) was J money, and we got nothing from the other six licensees (plus Teac). Yet your own analysis of the past suggests we get, what was it, $4M net to PTSC on average from past licensees?
Does this make any sense to you? I'm probably missing some details, but in most simplistic terms:
What were our revenues for Q3? $11.7M net from PDS
How many licensees, including the Js (just through Jan, since Febs numbers aren't in there)? 11 (plus Teac)
Historical average $/licensee? I recall something in the neighborhood of $4M per your numbers ($4M X 11 = $44M; X12 = $48M - net to PTSC)
Average $ per Q3 licensee, based on historical actuals? ~$1M
Average $ per licensee in Q3 excluding the Js? ~$1.7M (~$1.5M if Teac included)
IMO, your proposition makes no sense, based purely on the above. IMO, the $ from the Js, and some others, were not yet realized. IMO, this is obvious per the above.
You said: "As the 10q numbers imply, it seems the value of the 4 license agreements that were entered into that ended the J2.5 litigation were likely to be worth in the neighborhood of $20M to $25M. I remain fairly convinced that the payments received to date will entail the entirety of the financial results to PDS of these license agreements."
Please explain what convinces you so, after looking at the above. I'd really like to KNOW. The ramblings of a self-confessed ignorant poster? The carefully word-smithed statement by the CEO?
Maybe some clarification from you is needed, but the way I read that, you're saying PDS got net ~$23M (2 X $11.7M = $23.4M) from the Js, and zero from all the other (7-8) licensees. I suspect I'm missing PDS expense money in the calculations, but the point I'm making stands.
And then you ask if I consider that a win or loss with the Js.
From a pure dollars standpoint, your question makes no sense, IMO.
So I repeated the same answer I provided Ron way back pre-settlement, when he asked "what would you consider a "win"?".
Essentially, my answer ignores the numbers, and focuses on who met their litigation objective, and who didn't. We did, they didn't, we won. As pure an answer as you can get. Yet you reject it, and want me to respond to the question in terms of dollars, which, per the above, is a pretty bogus question IMO.
But I'll respond based on the above numbers. Do I consider it a "win" for us if the Js paid, on average, $1M each? Yes, we met our objective and the patents remained "alive". My answer would be "no" IF there were no license (or MOU), and the patents had been defeated via a declaration of invalidity. And I would consider the litigation a "wash" if there had been a declaration of no infringement (because we would not have satisfied the license objective, but the patents would remain valid against real infringers).
I hope this answer is satisfactory.
And of course you recognize that IMO we have not yet seen penny one from the Js, nor possibly from some of the licensees in Jan (e.g., Daewoo, Psion), nor any of the licensees from Feb.
And I have at least 20 "clues" supporting my proposition, some very strong IMO, and not one person has stepped up to argue any of them down effectively. Not one. Just that total non-sense explanation for the MOU from Brian.
Step up, if you really believe what you're suggesting. Check my post history over the last month plus. It's all there. Pick a clue, any clue, and hammer it. Please!
An easy place to start is here:
http://www.agoracom.com/ir/patriot/m...
Argue all of those down effectively, and maybe you can make a believer out of me. Good luck!
JMHOs,
SGE