Re: Gold Stocks Underperforming - Why? - WarrantReporter
in response to
by
posted on
Mar 02, 2008 06:51AM
NI 43-101 Update (September 2012): 11.1 Mt @ 1.68% Ni, 0.87% Cu, 0.89 gpt Pt and 3.09 gpt Pd and 0.18 gpt Au (Proven & Probable Reserves) / 8.9 Mt @ 1.10% Ni, 1.14% Cu, 1.16 gpt Pt and 3.49 gpt Pd and 0.30 gpt Au (Inferred Resource)
This is a cunumdrum..
I see David Morgan is also pointing this out as a possible reason. David also believes that, after a near term rally, the metals and metal stocks are due for a correction / pullback and advises cashing in a percentage of your stock gains. He believes that once this next brief rally occurs, and we may be in it already, the metal stocks will drop along with the general market. The time to get back in will be when the metal stocks STOP dropping in relation to the general market.
The other reason he recommends this is that in past bull market rallies, the metal stocks lead the metals. This time the metals are leading the metal stocks, so he doubts that this may be the real deal.
He admits he doesn't know as anything is possible.
Here is my theory, an optimistic theory but I think plausible.
If you look at the big picture, the metal stocks actually have done well in that they have NOT been falling in sympathy with the general markets loss of value. So, in a relative sense, they have been rising.
Couple this with the worlds economic turmoil, loss of faith in fiat and move to the safety of the actual metals I think we can argue that these are not normal times so we may not be able to trust normal rules like 'metal stocks rise before metals'.
David also called for a drop in metals price, a correction, back when silver was $14.00. Now he sees a correction back to $16.00. So he did not get that quite right and he was using normal models to make his best judgement.
My general point is that in this time of a rapidly deteriorating dollar, the old rules may not apply. Folks are going to continue to want to get into commodities and into companies that will make them money or at least not lose them money.
In either event, Morgan sees a continuation of the bull market for the long term. He recommends that if you do cash in, be sure to KEEP your long position for the long term ride.
Exciting times for sure!
BK