Well said, with one question: are you assuming the US "crash" will be of a scale to destroy aggregate world demand for base metals ?

Given that homebuilding nosedived two years ago, where will the rest of the decline in base metals demand be felt first in the US ? This has been a subject of much conjecture with many of the view BRIC growth will continue to exceed the marginal US decline remaining, considering the latter demand won't likely go to zero.

A second question is what if the US simply continues to print money as at present which while inflationary equates to propping demand ?

Welcome your comments, since Ni pricing is the most unquantifiable risk to NOT.