The offer by NOT is certainly intriguing.

Will the offer in it's current form come to fruition? Will NOT up the ante? Will an offer from a third party emerge? Does NOT have Cliffs on their side? Does NOT have someone else on their side? Why did NOT appear so seemingly confident from the start of this proceeding? If the offer does not go through, what will happen to NOT's and FWR's S/P? Many questions, few answers.

Much has been said about the relative S/P prices of NOT and FWR of late. Most FWR supporters are quick to note that NOT's S/P has been under pressure while FWR's has remained relatively consistent. From where I sit, FWR's S/P is maintaining the current valuation and NOT's not so much due to one of two scenarios IMO. First, the market is expecting a subsequent offer, most I'm sure subscribe to this notion. No surprises there.

How about this one? The higher that NOT's S/P goes, the more expensive it becomes for NOT's "partners" to accumulate FWR shares by virtue of the established S/P ratio. Couple that with the fact that it is pretty difficult if not impossible for accumulation of any significant number of shares with a declining S/P.

Some expected the other day after the FWR BoD rejection coupled with NOT's quick response N/R that there would be a FWR sell-off fuelled by likely shorting and an uptick in NOT's S/P. Didn't happen on either front.

If this offer does not come to fruition and no other offer emerges, there exisits a whole lot more short-term downside risk associated with FWR. Without this deal happening and short of some "barnburner" news from the FWR camp...

NOT's news the other day, specifically the more than 100 metres along strike... (the gold is a bonus) is great news and has yet to have any meaningful impact on our S/P. I also firmly believe that soon we will get the "game changer" N/R.

We used to be one big happy ROF family but now there are two distinct factions.

There remains one ulimate question: Ultimately, one faction will eat crow. Which one?

Cheers,

Milsy1