I keep a printout of this link hanging on my bulletin board:
http://www.investmentu.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/04/20050228b.jpg
It reminds me that there is a common pattern to the long-term stock price for mining development companies. The reasons are fairly easy to guess:
- Stock climbs initially as it gets on investors' radar screens;
- Stock jumps on speculation that this is the biggest deposit in the universe;
- Reality sets in as people realize that a lot of time, capital and hard work is required to develop the deposit, regardless of how big it is, and speculators in the first phase run up wisely take their profits and redeploy;
- the price runs up again as production becomes a real possibility.