Re: Buy out minimum
in response to
by
posted on
Oct 30, 2011 08:04PM
NI 43-101 Update (September 2012): 11.1 Mt @ 1.68% Ni, 0.87% Cu, 0.89 gpt Pt and 3.09 gpt Pd and 0.18 gpt Au (Proven & Probable Reserves) / 8.9 Mt @ 1.10% Ni, 1.14% Cu, 1.16 gpt Pt and 3.49 gpt Pd and 0.30 gpt Au (Inferred Resource)
"there are those who have really cheap shares and to take $2 would be a real coupe for them."
And it would be a double on the above if they sold for 4$.
I believe that most investors would not sell for a cheap offer even if they had a multi bagger. Most would sell only at or near a fair price.
So what is a fair price?
As per recent comments, we have 3 times the resource of a time that this stock traded for 7$. On the other side we have roughly 3 times the dillution. Both of these facts mean that in a "normal" market we could easily trade at that 7$ now. So the raping that we receive now is mostly due to global economic problems. Note that we now have better insight and possibilities regarding infrastructure then we had then.
That is an additional plus above that time.
The native blockade was a detriment but with recent comments by natives and government officials, a large part of that aspect is behind us.
Let me take all of you back a couple of years to after Eagle's hole 49 discovery in 2009.
How many of you, partly myself included, said that they would not sell below 10$ and expected as much as 20$. How times have changed.
With the exception of world economy and a hickup or two, Noront's situation has only improved from that time, imho.
So when I say that a first offer from a potential buyer could be as low as 2$, that in my opinion would be a feeler offer with a good dose of hopeful luck on the offerer's part. That would be sold as three times recent trading price and argued that you as a holder should not expect more. Arguments being made that offers as multiples are rarely made and more typical is 50 to 100% premium. That is why I say that they were going to hope on luck that many would buy that bait.
But just consider how the FWR buy out transpired, we would be not much different.
2+$ initial offer rejected, second offer of say 3+$ would indicate to them how many were soft to a sell out.
"Therefore buying out NOT before electricity rates are established makes it harder for them to calculate costs and profits."
Harder to calculate costs but in exchange they can now aquire at a much lower price because once electricity is quaranteed at a specific price or easier access available to the region, they can forget about current prices as a basis from which to make an offer.
"I think the EU getting their house in order and signs of improvement in the US economy may calm the waters"
Europe IS getting their house in order albeit slowly and with pains, however I can not say so of the US. Americans are playing a game of denial and are not solving their problem but digging themselves into a deeper quagmire.
Here is where I say that an investor whose break even price may be 50 cents or below will not necessarily jump at a 3$ plus change offer.
I believe that most have a fairly good idea of Noront's value and will hold for much higher irrespective of current trading price.
I will be comfortable with 3$ sp and extatic only above the 5 buck level, while holding some back for above 10.
Cheers, Ed.