Misfit's Early Morning Halloween Musing for Monday, October 31, 2011
in response to
by
posted on
Oct 30, 2011 11:51PM
NI 43-101 Update (September 2012): 11.1 Mt @ 1.68% Ni, 0.87% Cu, 0.89 gpt Pt and 3.09 gpt Pd and 0.18 gpt Au (Proven & Probable Reserves) / 8.9 Mt @ 1.10% Ni, 1.14% Cu, 1.16 gpt Pt and 3.49 gpt Pd and 0.30 gpt Au (Inferred Resource)
Hi All,
I wanted to say hello to many of the old timers and say that I enjoy seeing so many familiar posters hanging around even after all these years. I also want to say hello to all the new Notters who have been bit by the Noront bug for which there is no cure.
Having been away from this board for the better part of almost two years, it took some time to digest the past year's worth of news releases and events. I even took time to check out the golf tournament photos - great work in continuing the children's charitable work passed down through Richard Nemis.
One observation that I have made over the past 48 hours is that the group on Agoracom has really matured. There is much more patience and respect with the stock, the company, its management and with the other members of this blog then I remember there being when I last posted in January 2010. While many of the names are still the same, the board has a different feel to it which I believe is very positive.
It has been fun reading through the posts of late and even reading through some of the higher rated posts from the past two years. It got me into a nostraglic mood as I remembered the times of Mexico, Windfall gold rush, the ROF staking madness, the proxy war, the battle with Cliffs over Freewest and everything else in-between. Part of my reason for going back to the many NRs and high vote postings was to try to validate my recent "gut level purchase" on Friday. I had been out of this stock for nine months and while going to make an order for a different stock noticed the price and volume for Noront placed changed my order to NOT.
A decision that could cost me more than just a paper loss in Noront (should it drop this week) as the stock that I was originally planning to buy (more of) will likely move up 50% this week if my spidy senses and superman like hearing are correct. I cannot share this stock with anyone because 1) I no longer pump stocks I am excited about since the market crash in 2008 and 2) if I am wrong I am willing to take the hit for myself and the information I acted upon but if I tell somebody else and I am wrong then I feel responsible not only for my loss but also theirs. That is too heavy a load to carry. As nothing is guaranteed in this world I stopped sharing tips on public forums a long time ago. When I do make reference to a company it will always now be in a historical context, like I did with Hathor during my musing yesterday.
That said, I believe I took a sure half bagger and put it into Noront, a stock that has blessed me incredibly and burned me throughout the years. That brought some of the greatest investment joys in my life and more times than not left me frustrated at the volatility of the prices and the games played by the hedge funds.
The largest problem I have with investing in Noront is the opporunity cost of holding this stock long term. This is always weighed against the other largest problem - not having an investment in Noront at any given time and possibily missing the boat. It is a problem I live with every time I sell a position in Noront and invest it somewhere else, even if for a few days, a few weeks, or a few months. Gambling that nothing will happen with Noront during that time while I pursue a different investment lead.
In my five years of investment experience with Noront, there have been very few windows of opportunity whereby one could truly get on board just before a major multi-bagger run up. The time window to get on board or to load up with more shares has typically been a day or so at most before major news is released and the stock does a major pop.
I believe everybody who owns this stock believes it will one day pop again. The problem is timing. This does not matter to those who hold long with their shares under their pillows. Then Noront pops again they are guaranteed to have shares in Noront. But what I have discovered is that most of these longs will also ride the pop up to its highest point and then ride it all the way back down while waiting for the next pop. In a musing I made a few years ago I talked about two people close to me who rode Noront from .60 cents to $7 and back to .60 cents without ever having sold a single share. I cried when I sold most of my shares at $4.00 in 2007 and then watched it rise above $7 in 2008 ( I had a lot of shares at that time given an average of .50 cents). But when it hit $2 and dropped back down later that year I breathed a sigh of relief that I had locked in profits. At the end of the day is this not why everybody invests in risky stocks?
Back to the topic of pops...
It has been nearly five years since the initial Windfall bonanza hole results were leaked and I remember having a couple of thousand dollars in this stock when it was at .18 cents. When the stock rose on high volume to .30 cents just before the NR (I think it was hole 105 if my memory serves correctly) I begged my fiancee (Miss Misfit at the time) to max out the Visa and buy all we could at .30 cents. (Just take a moment to think about how crazy that was given our wedding was being held just 3 months later). The reason I (or should I see "we") bought was based part on a source but also confirmation through the smoke created by volume. As the share price had been flatlined between 12 and 20 cents for the better part of two years before that, the rise in volume took on a new meaning. Totally unknown stocks are rarely pumped and dumped - unless of course the management team is pure evil. I knew that Richard Nemis was a man of integrity so this had to be something more. In a few short days the stock shot to $1.07 before it fell slowly over the next seven months to the .30s again. During that time I paid for a nice honeymoon and kept a nice amount of shares for the next pop.
I remember the summer lull in 2007 before the Eagle One news from McFaulds lake hit the wires. The stock was in the .30s in the week leading up to that famous drill hole 1 result and this time there were no leaks. Just a two day halt and a subsequent opening in the .60s followed by $1.50 the next day and up to $5 in the next few weeks. It would bounce up and down between $3 and $7 dollars in the months that followed but again a miracle of multi bagger as most of us were averaged back in at about .50 cents based on the board discussion at that time.
Of course the years that have followed saw the stock market crash twice and recessions hit most of North American and Europe.
I bring up the two major historical pops as the observations and gut feel I had on Friday felt exactly the same as the gut feel it felt the morning I ran up the Visa and bought just before the halt that would later see the bonanza Windfall Lake bonanza gold announced the following day in November 2006. It is also the same gut feel I had when I bought more stock in the few days leading up to the Eagle One two day halt in August 2006. At that time we were all focussed on the permitting for the Windfall Lake ramp and this news just came out of nowhere. Just like those two previous times, I had no idea if the stock was going to go up or down, but fortunately it did go up both times.
I have the same spidey sense today that I had just before those pops. Will this be the first time my spidey sense has failed me with Noront. I am prepared to be totally wrong and miss out on a half bagger in order to follow this through. I could see my .70 cent purchase return to .50 just as fast as the stock went from .485 to .70 cents on Friday. It could very well be that the only news we get this week is from Wes saying that he "got the call". For those who do not know, "The call" is what companies on the TSX and Venture get when the volume and share price for their stock hit abnormal volatility and volumes in the absence of material news. It is the regulators way of trying to keep things fair and keep the pump and dump boiler rooms from influencing investors by manipulating prices through high volume run ups and run downs based on rumours. It is also meant to keep companies in line as to the premature release of information through insider contacts as they are expected to provide an explanation as to whether there is any known reason for the abnormal rise or fall in prices or increased volume of trading on high volume could represent.
If Wes does get "the call" then we will likely see this type of news release tomorrow:
" The Management of Noront (TSX VENTURE:NOT) wishes to point out that no substantial change in its activities and operations can explain recent fluctuations of its stock on the market. "
I have followed many companies whereby I get alerts to these type of news releases in my email from time to time. In most cases there really is no explanation and the stock experiencea a high volume buying or selling frenzy based purely on hype. This possibility has been discussed by many here in the past 48 hours. And it is a possibility. What is interesting in NOT's case is that I have not been able to find the presence of pumpers on any of the regular boards so that is not what triggered the white candle. Again, very similar to both the pre-Windfall and pre-Eagle-1 news releases whereby the bashers only came out after the news releases in an attempt to drive down the share price in order to faciliate a lower PP.
I have also seen where a company releases this type of statement, assures the regulators that nobody in management told their friends about some good or bad news, and then follow it up with a substantial news release a few days later. I could never figure out how things could change in a matter of days and how the regulators just let it go.
What is interesting in NOT's case is that I have not been able to find the presence of pumpers on any of the regular boards. Not even rumours leading up to Friday's increase and run. Again, very similar to both the pre-Windfall and pre-Eagle-1 news releases. The short volumes for Noront have fallen from 100,000 shares six weeks ago to less than 5,000 two weeks ago. Not a significant amount of shares mind you so I do not hold as much weight on that indicator.
Someone famous once said expect the best and prepare for the worst. I am prepared for "the call" NR tomorrow but my gut tells me something else is coming. Can I hit 3 for 3 with "Noront and the Pops"? The week ahead will reveal the answers.
Should be an exciting few days to say the least.
M1.
release news two days that would have justified the run-up had it been released earlier. In these cases is was almost like the company telling the TSX that nothing is up and then two days later