Aiming to become the global leader in chip-scale photonic solutions by deploying Optical Interposer technology to enable the seamless integration of electronics and photonics for a broad range of vertical market applications

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Message: Perspectives on POET's stock price

Per Zack's analysis:

Given its unique product offering and large, TAM we believe POET shares are worth, $7.60 based on peer multiples given, no further equity dilution than forecast.

Historical high that I read somewhere

$26.00 

 

Latest Slide Deck on the POET Website:

POET is one of only a few suppliers of 800G (2X400G FR4 and LR4) modules that are in high demand by AI service providers and data center operators • The global market for 800G transceivers in 2023 was $432M and is expected to reach $5.3B by 2028 – a 65% CAGR • POET has designed engines and modules at 1.6T, 3.2T and higher ahead of market demand

This observation by the company seems to be getting traction with the industry given the Foxconn, Luxshare, Multilane partnerships. POET has a clear path to 1.6 and 3.2 and has stated cost and performance advantages at 800G. How is it that the projected market shares are so minuscule. I would think a 20-30% market share is within sight, though I understand one looks crazy to say that of a pre-revenue company. 

Given the above, I think we are at least a $10 stock today, and far more when the sales start in earnest, which I believe will be far sooner than anyone is saying. 

If AI is an existential struggle for the hyperscalers, and power management is part of that equation, and CAPEX's are so giant, it is a mystery to me why the POET solutions should not be rapidly embraced. I think they are getting that attention and it will snowball. A serious share of the markets they are addressing is in the hundreds of millions, and will touch the billions in time. These numbers are normal scales of business for Foxconn and Luxshare. That is the beauty of these engagements. 

People will one day brag about having "gotten in" at under $10.00

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