To be clear, I am guessing at the 800G and up market, for the 20-30% estimate. Having Foxconn and Luxshare on the POET team is what gives me some confidence. If the completion had a better 800G product, I don't think Foxconn and Luxshare would have gone with POET's solution. These companies are too big to ignore and the field is small at 800G and above. There will be some pressure to go with a company that has a path to 1.6G, all things being equal. I have no special insight; I am just combining the information that is out there. 

I am woefully biased and not super confident of anything POET, except that there is smoke and fire in the future.