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Message: Re: Fracking

Mar 30, 2011 03:03PM
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Apr 11, 2011 02:47PM
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Don't be fooled by these institutions. Almost always do the opposite of what they recommend. I would not be surprised if Argo Securities start buying shares at these absurd levels within the near future. No doubt that QEC is high risk. Do your own due diligence.

Full analysis is as follows:

After six months of carefully reviewing the shale gas industry, the BAPE commission released its findings on Tuesday, March 8. Among other recommendations, the com-mission stated that additional studies are needed before allowing commercial hydraulic fracturing of shale formations. Thus, the commission has adopted a caution-first prin-ciple due to what it considers is the current lack of scientific foundation for the envi-ronmental impact of shale fracking. Quebec’s Minister of Sustainable Development, Environment and Parks, Pierre Arcand is now asking for a strategic environmental evaluation of shale gas, which could last for two years. This would effectively bar Questerre from further maturing its acreage until the new evaluation is completed. Arcand is also suggesting that certain additional interim regulations should be implemented, such as requiring local approval of shale gas drilling. However, drilling permits that already have been approved apparently will remain valid. Questerre and the entire shale gas industry in Quebec have lost round one in the bat-tle to open up shale gas extraction in the province. For investors, the visibility has de-teriorated and risk has increased. The prolonged moratorium on hydraulic fracturing is costly from an equity investor’s perspective, and there is no guarantee that the find-ings from the upcoming environmental impact study will favour the industry. The lack of effective regulation means that Questerre is losing momentum in its en-deavour to create value in the St. Lawrence lowlands. Even though Questerre may be allowed to perform limited test fracs for scientific purposes in the future, it may not be advisable for the company to invest more at this stage due to the regulatory risk. We also wonder if Questerre may be better off cutting its losses and refocusing its strategy in other parts of the world. We reduce our target price to 6.0 per share and lower our recommendation to Reduce. The main justifications for the revisions are a prolonged drilling moratorium, continu-ing low natural gas prices, a dwindling cash position, and the lack of datapoints sug-gesting a sufficient amount of natural gas is in place for commercial development.


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