Re: What would a successful BETonMACE Top-Line Data Announcement Look Like?
posted on
Aug 11, 2019 02:55AM
PublicHeel - Agree with you regarding mining and oil gas "pleased" statements being close to non events. With this BoM trial having statistical significance no matter how small the margin, could end up being a boon to the company. Kind of like being a little bit pregnant, you never know what it could develop into, one baby, twins or even triplets. The CVD market is good with some 12 million patients in the G8 countries that fit the exact trial patient populations symptoms. What % of that market would apabetalone capture, who knows but the Van Leeuwenhoeck report 5/2/2019 suggests it could be in excess of 40%.
There is what I believe to be 2 bigger opportunities after getting statistical significance in this trial that will get lots of attention, CKD and cognitive function. With both of these potential markets there are a limited number of effective treatments leaving massive opportunities.
Golfyeti was kind enough to post on 08 Aug the commentary from a presentation done by Dr Kamyar Kaiantar-Zedah that was done a few years ago about CKD. In it Dr K-Z says the 5-year death rate for CKD patients is 64% which is a higher death rate than most cancers. Up to this point (when the presentation was done) there was nothing to stop the progression of CKD. I don't know if apabetalone will stop progression or even reverse CKD but if it does the market in the USA alone is 20 to 30 million patients which is much larger than the CVD target market for all of the G8 countries. In the past there was a video clip on the RVX website that had DR K-Z coming out of his skin with excitement from what he saw in the post hock analysis of previous trials. Unfortunately, that video is no longer on their website because that body language was very easy to read.
As for cognitive function the company had said absolutely nothing about Alzheimer’s/cognitive function for longer than the first 2 years of this BoM trial and ever since about March/April of 2018 they are talking more and more about it. Within the last few weeks someone posted an article about cognitive function on the RVX hub that said the market in the USA alone is 5.6 million patients and there was a clip on the CTV National in the last month that said the market in Canada is over half a million patients. Just here in north America there is a market of more than 6 million patients with cognitive function issues without a single effective drug to slow down, stop or reverse the problem. When you add in the remaining countries in the G8 there is likely more than 20 million patients as a target market without a single competitor at this time. Today we don't know what they have seen but I betting we will in a few short months. Being “pleased” to pass this trial with statistical significance should be massive news for RVX and will be even bigger if they are able to say anything at all about CKD or cognitive function.
If I had to guess I would say that if the company knew when they were designing BETonMACE what they know today that this would have been a CKD or a cognitive function trial and not a CVD trial. Both of those markets are bigger with less competition.
All IMO, DYODD
tada