"If RVX were to indeed do what Paul Moon said (only announce if the trial successfully met end points...and nothing else), then the share price will most likely not go up that much initially. The option price is indicating $5.6, so I am guessing we land up somewhere between $6 and $8."

Not sure if you're talking Canadian or USD.

Amarin shot up to the $5-6 billion USD valuation shortly after top-line in September 2018, but importantly they revealed a stellar 25% RRR for their primary 5-point MACE outcome in the top-line news release. There were still a lot of questions after Amarin's top-line about how much it affected the strict 3-point MACE, which they did not reveal until full data at the AHA meeting in November 2018. 

I respect your point that by not revealing the BETonMACE %RRR at top-line that this may initially restrain the RVX/RVXCF share price movement. However, a few point to keep in mind that may alter your opinion on this: 

1) Resverlogix is off the radar right now. Conversely, everyone new about Amarin prior to REDUCE-IT top-line. A stellar news release of BETonMACE successfully meeting the primary outcome in a cardiovascular outcomes trial will catapult Resverlogix into the spotlight. You can't hide a successful cardiovascular outcomes trial.

2) BETonMACE is for 3-point MACE, not 5-point MACE. So even if we don't know the exact %RRR at top-line, we will know that apabetalone in BETonMACE successfully reduced the composite of cardio death, non-fatal MI and non-fatal stroke. Furthermore, since BETonMACE was designed to "[provide] 80% power to detect a 30% reduction in the primary endpoint with apabetalone," one can reasonably assume that the %RRR is at least 30% RRR ballpark. Quoted text is from the BETonMACE rationale and design paper.

3) "...no diabetes medication has been shown to reduce MACE in patients with recent ACS." Quoted text is from the BETonMACE rationale and design paper. In other words, there is no diabetes drug that has ever successfully shown in clinical trials to reduce MACE in diabetics with recent ACS event on top of current standard of care. The GLP-1R agonist lixasenatide, the DPP4 inhibitor alogliptin, and the PPAR agonist aleglitizar all attempted to show reduced cardio events in type 2 diabetics with recent ACS, but all three trials failed. SGLT2 inhibitors have not been tested in diabetics with recent ACS. Vascepa isn't a diabetes drug, per se. But even Vascepa can't claim to reduce MACE in diabetics with recent ACS since REDUCE-IT had a much broader population and was not focused on diabetics with recent ACS. Therefore, if BETonMACE announces successful top-line data, even without a %RRR, this will be the first clinical trial to claim victory in reducing MACE in this super high risk population of diabetics with recent ACS. 

BearDownAZ