Re: Clarification on BETonMACE baseline data
in response to
by
posted on
Sep 09, 2019 06:29PM
Toinv - The reason I said I would like to see 43% RRR is as a result of the Van Leeuwenhoeck Analyst Report by Marcel Wijma 5/2/2019 on page 3 of the Link Library
In the chart on page 27, with an RRR of >40% he projects a 70% market share for cardio only by 2029. I don't agree with his potential gross sales as by getting an RRR in excess of 40% would put the number needed to treat, NNT, below 20 which should fetch more than $2,000 per year per patient while apabetalone is on patent. With 12 million patients in the G8 countries that fit the critieria for this trial and a 70% market share we would be looking at potenial peek sales of $16.8 billion anually. And that is just for the cardio patients. If there is any benefit for CKD or demenia that would be added to that peek sales number. If the benefits to CKD and demenia do work out well each of those markets on their own are larger than the cardio market.
As far as I know you need a %RRR to get a NNT to get an ICIER score to price the product within the payors guidlines. Since it is the payors that make it or break it for valuations in the end I think the %RRR is very important, and greater than 40% puts us at the highest valuation point, whatever that may be.
All IMO, dyodd.
Tick, tock
tada