Re: Poor Production
in response to
by
posted on
Jul 14, 2009 04:21PM
Connacher is a growing exploration, development and production company with a focus on producing bitumen and expanding its in-situ oil sands projects located near Fort McMurray, Alberta
Brian /Sharky
Very passionate discussion on the board reflecting the shareholders disappointment with CLL share performance related to mismanagement of the company assets.
What I would do different?
1. I would never purchase the LUKE (NG assets).
In last 3 years Luke did not contributed to CLL free cash flow and after millions of dollars in additional investment Luke production is about 25% lower then when it was purchase.
Luke cost the shareholders $93 millions and +30 millions new shares, diluting at that time oilsand assets and CLL share price by about 30% .
2. I would never purchase the MRC refinery. It was another strategic mistake which not only did not pay by itself but was burning the CLL cash when we needed it to survive the downturn. For some reason the MRC margins are much lower the industry average.
In general in North America this is very low margin business and some of the independent refineries are trying to scale down their operation and move to Asian markets.
3. I would sell the PDP for $275 millions ($15 per share).This, with the original Oilsand Loan of $180 million at 8.5% would be more then efficient to finish the POD1.
All the above would give us only $14 millions in interest payments and fully funded POD1 operation generating $45 to 50 millions in cash flow. Our shares would be $5 to 7 dollars and if we would go to market to finance the Algar we would have to issue about 50 millions shares only (look at the PBG growth strategy).
Most of all with the low interest payments we would be able to survive the downtrend (end of Q4) without panic, cutting the production or engaging in bad oil swaps.
Our debt to cash flow would be X4 instead, astronomical by any standard X12(about $100 million intrest payments) with the average for juniors and intermittent X3 .
Unfortunately gambling nature of the management and luck of wisdom by the Board of Directors diverted the company to heavy debt at first (cost of interest payments at the present production is exceeding $30 per bbl) and then desperation sell of 50% of company assets at 90 cents per share.
As have been pointed out the market has spoken and the CLL SP is under the $1 when the NAVPS is above $1.5. Investors simply demanding big discount on their purchases.
Is it the market fault as suggested by the Cheerleaders or is it misfired strategy of gambling the shareholders money ? You be the judge.
PS.Cornergas, you were obviously right about the principal repayment.