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Connacher is a growing exploration, development and production company with a focus on producing bitumen and expanding its in-situ oil sands projects located near Fort McMurray, Alberta

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Message: Re: Poor Production
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Jul 14, 2009 05:42PM

A couple of things:

1) firstly MRC was a very good investement. I dont know if you are unaware, but it paid for itself in under 2 years. Dick Guesella himself said in an interview on BNN that he wishes he could have done 10 MRC's buyouts if possible. The return on investement was very high. It is also providing Diluent for Great Divide.

2) The latest new release said that POD 1 will be operating at full capacity by qaurter 3 of this year. When they say full capacity I am assuming 9500 b/d or higher. When they curtailed production there was no ill effects from the decision, except for the fact that it takes a few months to ramp back up. If POD 1 averaged 6,666 b/d through June 30, there is a high possibility that they were steaming lower 5,500 - 6,000 range through the end of may, and then 7000+ through the end of June. Now that we are halfway through July we could be in the High 7000's or low 8000 b/d range.

3) The pricing evironment for Heavy crude is very attractive right now. I say this for several reasons: Natural Gas is extremely cheap. Operating costs are now around $15/ bbl for connacher while prevouisly above $20. The heavy oil differential in alberta is now in the range of (8.00) to (10.00) in June, far below last years levels which were around (25.00) in June.

4) Although Connacher entered into low hedge positions for 5000 b/d of production, any excess is recieving high premiums around $60 a bbl in todays WTI environment. You better believe it is management goal to increase production as much as possible while this environment lasts.

Any thoughts on this?

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