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Connacher is a growing exploration, development and production company with a focus on producing bitumen and expanding its in-situ oil sands projects located near Fort McMurray, Alberta

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Message: Re: cll mentioned as possible takeover target on bnn - rebels1 SCOTT

Hi Scott,

I agree with it would have been reasonable to get pdp shares, since cll did not do well in the last 4 yrs for long term invesors, it would have been fair

But i do disagree with you on the wisodm of cll buyung and doubling itws shares in pdp.

U see I think pdp has lots of ptential, even without colombia and peru, if argentian caputilted to the market forces and it will soon, it has no choice and pdp produces 10,000bbld/d,it shares will sour to high teens. If colombia abd peru reservs prove to be good, and sart producing about even 10,000 each net for pdp, pdp sp can go to 40, that means about 1b for cll, basically paying off debt, then with algar and pode one at desgn capacity and getting aproval for expansion, u are looking at 8 to 10 cll share in 3 yrs. I ALSO disagree on pdp sp has no bearing on cll,it has. fore ever $1 pdp increasein sp, cll increases .25, so if pdp is successul and it share price goes to 20, like it did before,that is like 5 for cll, add to that if cll produces 50,000bbl/d that is mid teens for cll.

PDP has lots of ptential, but am amprehnsive about la pina delay, what do u think about la pinta delay??

cus of recent dilution and debt for cll, it has to keep pdp, i even asked DG if cll will increase its shares in pdp inlight of the increase in the rolyality regiem increase in alberta last yr, he said we are focused in oil sands and said no. Now he busys more shares, i wish at this low price even doubled pdp stake to 48%.

So my thinking is if pdp succeeds and then algar and pode 1 are in design lelels in 2 yrs or so and oil stays where it is and with refinery, u will see cll at mid teens. But without pdp and high debt and high dilution, cll may have issues to reward long term investors like myself and you. I think of pdp as debt wiper, atleast.

also the merger thing is not impossible and would be good for cll. not one buying the other,but merging, means new company will be created with both value and both debt,

new shares issued and the debt and recent dilution will be irrelevant, new company let us call it "connapetro oil" will have new shares and 1b debt and even with 500m shares outstding with peru, colombia, argenitan (after it caputialtes), refinary, u have an integrated company like suncor, but off course smaller, then, we are saver even at oil around 40 cus s.americal oil is cheaper to produce and refinery to capture the diff and if oil goes to 100, then our connapetro" will do good.

Believe

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Aug 28, 2009 09:28AM

Aug 28, 2009 10:46AM
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