Re: Both Sides of the Picture
in response to
by
posted on
Feb 11, 2012 01:54AM
CUU own 25% Schaft Creek: proven/probable min. reserves/940.8m tonnes = 0.27% copper, 0.19 g/t gold, 0.018% moly and 1.72 g/t silver containing: 5.6b lbs copper, 5.8m ounces gold, 363.5m lbs moly and 51.7m ounces silver; (Recoverable CuEq 0.46%)
What an excellent post....I love the fact that youve brought negatives up here.
Amazing how people disregard what a negative is to a stock. I work it in such a manner that when a have a bunch of negatives are applied to the dynamic, and a positive still remains when done; well hell...this stock deserves a bit of money at least. Its stupid to be completely optimistic about anything let alone a stock.....its equally as stupid to be pessimistic. The truth lies somewhere in between and will always contain pessimism. See it for what it is...pessimism happens to all great stocks.
Ive applied a lot of negative to this stock....and short of extistentialism....I have a hard time coming with scenarios that are both negative and plausible for us.
I love a good argument.
That being said I must digress on some of your points, however I shall list why.
1. We have a huge world class resource - 1 billion tonnes of mineralized rock is a rare find these days
I would think more like 2.5-3 billion.....maybe more....lets see what turns up here, but I can assure you we were at 1.3 billion in 2007.
4. We can produce four different metals, allowing us to be hedged against metal price fluctuations
Copper, Gold, Silver, Molybdenum and high concentrations of Rhenium actually give us 5 metals.
Negatives
1. Hole 419 was not a new find. The drill hole location map makes it appear that we found mineralization well south of the resource block model. The map is misleading because the block model is shown for an elevation of 600m, well below the surface. Our actual resource block model goes almost all the way to 6359000 near the surface. The location of Hole 419 was already contained in our Resource Estimate (but likely at lower grades).
This is an excellent point of conjecture..to be honest I cant refute this point...might I ask where your info is coming from?
3. Our drill results are painfully slow. There are likely valid explanations for this. However, I'm concerned that Copper Fox is either selecting poor contractors for this job or they have weak control over the contractors.
Drills move about 40m per day depending on the rock. Then theres moving time for the drills into new locations. However this is a pretty stock rate.
4. Our budgeting abilities seem to be weak. Why so many financings? Why did we not just plan a large financing last spring and get it over with all at once?
Ernesto will dilute on a need only basis, look how much he owns.
5. This is not "cheap". This is a $525M dollar company with a likely 25% stake in a mine years away from construction. There are very few other companies in that situation with a market cap as high as us. So why am I here? Because I expect Copper Fox to be a very expensive buyout.
Not sure what your figure is but its up for debate for sure. Honestly I love everything about this stock...but if we rush the BFS we're leaving potentially a billion tonnes on the table. Anyones guess at this point but I dont think Teck will pay full price for anything that isnt proven. Fact.
7. Our Resource Estimate last year was very disappointing. The share price suffered because of it. It was not the shorts, or the frisbee shares, or the big banks. It was our own bad news that caused the drop. It's not the job of a resource estimate to remove rock that is uneconomical. That is the job of PFS/BFS. Our resource should not have gone down
A billion tonnes at that grade isnt disappointing. Equivalency works like a sliding scale my man. Our RE seemed to coincide with a major drop in global indices overall. For the TA guys our Beta at the time was also rather high. Our drills just offset our grade at that level anyways..moreover the grades are proving up.
It never hurts to add a bit of negative.....it only reinforces your positives.
Rogue,