Re: Both Sides of the Picture
in response to
by
posted on
Feb 11, 2012 11:23PM
CUU own 25% Schaft Creek: proven/probable min. reserves/940.8m tonnes = 0.27% copper, 0.19 g/t gold, 0.018% moly and 1.72 g/t silver containing: 5.6b lbs copper, 5.8m ounces gold, 363.5m lbs moly and 51.7m ounces silver; (Recoverable CuEq 0.46%)
Okay yes this is true.....we own 100% of Schaft Creek. For now.I honestly cant see Teck passing this up. 75% for about $260M? Thats a hell of a deal.
Good, so now that we got that cleared up. Let's give ourselves some SP credit for:
It is defined as an interest in a mineral property that entitles the owner of that interest to all of share of the mineral production from the property, usually subject to a royalty. A working interest permits the owner to explore, develop, and operate the property. The working-interest owner bears the costs of exploration, development, and operation of the property and, in return, is entitled to a share of the mineral production from the property or to a share of the proceeds there from. It may be assigned to another party in whole or in part, or it may be divided into other special property interests.
Working Interest and ownership are two completely different things.
Teck has first right of refusal here, they elect what to buy regardless of what we have to say, or can do about it.....and I suspect they will take 75% of our working interest for the bargain price of $260ish million dollars. We can not stop the the back in if they choose to to take the 75%, and it will leave us with 25%. Unless Teck chooses to back in for less, or even better not at all, as far as I am concerned we can split $260ish million dollars up as dividend and wait for the buyout.
Teck also will not pay a full premium on anything that has not been proven, it doesnt work like that. Would you pay for a car that may or may not have an engine? Our drill intercepts are excellent and my gut reaction is that we have increased our tonnes significantly and will probably also succeed in bringing up our grade....but again...until we have a resource estimate ensconcing all our minerals increasing our M+I categories, we will only recieve full price for the proven reserves.
What did we pay for our extra properties? Until we have drills in them proving up mineralized intercepts and possibly an RE, they might be worth a premium, but it could more likely than not be measured in the millions. NSR, Liard shares....all will add to the buyout but the most valuable part of our company, the 75% stake in Schaft Creek, is gone.
I am sorry, but please remember too that Teck farmed this property out to us, and have been working hand in hand with our management as well. Ernesto has the ability to wheel and deal with Teck, but at the same time I dont believe CUU has the power to push Teck around. We can haggle over a price at the table for sure, but theres also a painfully little talked about scenario as well.
What if Teck backs in for 75% and then elects to shelve this project for a couple years? What happens with our share price then? Its not impossible another producer would still pay for our chunk of this property and be glad they have a 25% interest when it goes into production, but they might also turn their attention elsewhere looking for acquisitions that can be in production by 2017.
If Teck shelves this project and no one decided they want our chunk......well....Im afraid to say we're going to be waiting a long time, and we'll probably see the share price plummet as everyones selling off trying to get their money out at a profit, and Big E might suddenly think that $2.50 a share is looking a lot better than having his money tied up for what could be years. This is the one plausible scenario I can think of that could affect CUU, short of the government nationalizing our resource etc. but those scenarios are too far out of left field to even be considered.
Do I think CUU is a hell of a property? Yes
Do I think CUU is a hell of a story? Yes
Do I think we're going to be rewarded for our patience? Yes
Do I think CUU can tell Teck whats up? No
Not trying to be negative about things fellas, but we are not a flawless, infalliable company. CUU has massive dilution as well, and dont forget that Schaft Creek also lies on the Tahltan Nations lands. This could cause massive governmental problems for us if they suddenly had a problem with our operation. CUU also does have some weak points. There is no such thing as a perfect, risk free stock.
Im still well over 99% in my thinking that we're going to get a very decent buyout price, but Im not 100%. I always entertain plausible scenarios, and I never let my guard down against risk, indeed I actively search for it so I know what my exposure truly is. CUU doesnt have much, but it still has some.
Regardless of all that, this is one hell of a stock, just wish we did own 100% so we wouldnt have Teck able to scoop up huge chunks of this deposit for a dime on the dollar.
Rogue,