Aiming to become the global leader in chip-scale photonic solutions by deploying Optical Interposer technology to enable the seamless integration of electronics and photonics for a broad range of vertical market applications

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Message: Darkness or light

Fairchij: I don't consider the direction they have given us to be mystery. They have laid out very realistic expectations based on knowledge.

Exactly, Fairchij!

And I think we have to stop thinking in extremes, i.e. it's either black or white, midnight or noon, all or nothing, heaven or hell, 100 % certainty or complete mystery. We should be aware that there is so much in between, and while we are not yet in the full light of the midday sun, we are definitely past midnight. You might still argue whether this is the first light of dawn only or whether the sun has already risen completely past the horizon. However, my point is that we can see some light and are not in pitch black.

But the share price! Let me compare it to a sōzu, a kind of Japanese shishi-odoshi, see the image below. It consists of a segmented tube, usually of bamboo, pivoted to one side of its balance point. At rest, its heavier end is down and resting against a rock. A trickle of water into the upper end of the tube accumulates and eventually moves the tube's centre of gravity past the pivot, causing the tube to rotate and dump out the water.

The share price is currently in the state of water accumulating in the tube with nothing else seeming to happen. However, we do know that within some period of time the center of gravity will be moved past the pivot. Until then, we have to wait and need patience. We can see the water trickling in. We do not know exactly what the water level is and when the tipping point will be reached, but we know that it is going to happen. The company's communication gives us good hints to make our guesstimates about the when.

Still there are risks, e.g. that the water influx gets clogged or that a wild boar destroys the whole system, but I think these risks are considerably low.

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Jun 26, 2016 10:14AM
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