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Message: Re: Question??? khareema
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Jun 17, 2010 10:57AM
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Jun 17, 2010 12:36PM
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Jun 18, 2010 01:05PM

"Just wondering your opinion/thoughts on today’s news release, with regard to KWG stock price"

While I appreciate the vote of confidence, I am just one opinion in a sea of them here.

There are two factors that have to fall into place here before anyone can say with any sort of certainty where we are going.

The first is that CLF requested a valuation be done to determine a fair value for KWG. This was later cancelled, however the contract had already been let for it, so one can safely assume that CLF will still be on the hook for it, and KWG will almost certainly want to see it. The interesting point is that KWG will get to see it first and may not even have to show it to CLF since they requested that it be cancelled. This becomes a double eagle because it will not likely be ready by Monday and KWG seems to be preparing some improved offer by then. The above is telling me that we will still see two more offers from CLF before they are done, so my forecast of 28 cents is coming into range.

The second factor has been mentioned here, but not strongly enough. CLF was an insider of KWG up until they made their move. They will still be considered as an insider for some preset time after the date, I think it is 3 months, but not really sure. If they proceed as they say, and just take out SPQ, they will be swamped with lawsuits all over the place, and they will lose them all. This tells me that whatever they wind up paying for SPQ, they will do the same for KWG, regardless of what they are saying today.

My forecast; KWG will up the offer just enough for NN to be able to say it is a superior offer before the market opens on Monday morning. CLF will come right out behind them with a 21 cent offer.

Best regards

K

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