Buckeyes - Great view from 20,000 feet.

Your numbers for Diabetic CVD are not to far off of where I am however...

With a 52% reduction in CHF I believe the NNT would be below 10 in that specific market and the drug cost would be closer to $2K to $5k annually. So increase your numbers by at least 1/3.

In addition there seems to be reason to believe that the lower the functioning of the kidneys the better ABL seems to work for those patients. That being said a look at just the CKD patient population without diabetes should be explored. In the USA alone there are about 35 million CKD patients and some data that suggests quite a few people have undiagnosed CKD. I was not able to find any info on what % of the 35 million CKD patients also had diabetes so I'll just have to wing this a bit. If just 20% of the 35 million CKD patients did not have diabetes then that would add another 7 million potential patients to the revenue pool. Since there isn't much competition for other effective treatments for these patients from what I understand I will assume 2 million could be ABL customers. 2 million X $2,000 would be an additional $4 billion to your numbers. This is only for the US market.

Getting CKD numbers from around the globe was a challenge so I did some estimating for the G8 countries only. About 105 million CKD patients is where that came in at including the USA. (As an aside it was interesting that north east Germany had one of the highest CKD concentrations on the planet) Using the same methodology as above we are looking at about 20 million potential ABL customers in addition to what you have calculated. I think it's safe to assume that there is still an extremely large market out there for the pharma companies to be able to capture and capitalize on.

The RVX team is very aware of this potential market. Making sure each of the pharma co's is also aware will create that competition.

There was some talk of a second BTD a few weeks ago. If there is any truth to that then I could see that competition in the pharma industry could be a very big friend of RVX.

This is just my fun with numbers exercise over Saturday morning coffee. Please feel free to chime in with your own version.

tada